Latest forecast · initialised Wed 11 Nov 2026, 12:00Z
Extreme atmospheric river slams into the Oregon coast
Peak moisture transport 860 kg/m/s · 2/3 members agree · 3-member ensemble · forecast to +168h
Peak moisture transport
860 kg/m/s
Extreme atmospheric river
Arrives
Friday 13 Nov, 12:00Z
+48h into the forecast
Landfall
43.2°N 124.5°W
1563 km of coastline above threshold
Ensemble agreement
67%
of members reach AR strength
Landfall timeline
Where and when moisture transport crosses atmospheric-river strength on the coast, with the fraction of ensemble members that agree.
| Valid | Lead | Location | Peak IVT | Category | Members |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 11 Nov 12:00Z | +0h | 48.4°N 124.9°W | 721 | strong | 100% |
| Wed 11 Nov 18:00Z | +6h | 48.4°N 124.9°W | 855 | extreme | 100% |
| Thu 12 Nov 00:00Z | +12h | 48.4°N 124.9°W | 688 | strong | 100% |
| Thu 12 Nov 06:00Z | +18h | 47.5°N 124.6°W | 485 | strong | 100% |
| Thu 12 Nov 12:00Z | +24h | 47.9°N 124.6°W | 352 | moderate | 100% |
| Thu 12 Nov 18:00Z | +30h | 48.4°N 124.9°W | 414 | moderate | 100% |
| Fri 13 Nov 00:00Z | +36h | 43.0°N 124.6°W | 476 | strong | 100% |
| Fri 13 Nov 06:00Z | +42h | 45.0°N 124.5°W | 740 | extreme | 100% |
| Fri 13 Nov 12:00Z | +48h | 43.2°N 124.5°W | 860 | extreme | 67% |
| Fri 13 Nov 18:00Z | +54h | 38.0°N 123.3°W | 597 | strong | 100% |
| Sat 14 Nov 00:00Z | +60h | 44.5°N 124.5°W | 458 | moderate | 100% |
| Sat 14 Nov 06:00Z | +66h | 47.9°N 124.9°W | 349 | moderate | 100% |
| Sat 14 Nov 12:00Z | +72h | 44.0°N 124.5°W | 332 | moderate | 33% |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:00Z | +78h | 45.0°N 124.5°W | 436 | moderate | 100% |
| Sun 15 Nov 00:00Z | +84h | 45.5°N 124.4°W | 682 | extreme | 67% |
| Sun 15 Nov 06:00Z | +90h | 44.5°N 124.4°W | 839 | extreme | 100% |
| Sun 15 Nov 12:00Z | +96h | 39.5°N 124.1°W | 543 | strong | 100% |
| Sun 15 Nov 18:00Z | +102h | 48.4°N 124.9°W | 278 | moderate | 33% |
| Mon 16 Nov 00:00Z | +108h | 36.5°N 122.2°W | 289 | moderate | 100% |
| Mon 16 Nov 06:00Z | +114h | 35.8°N 122.2°W | 305 | moderate | 67% |
| Mon 16 Nov 12:00Z | +120h | 35.0°N 121.1°W | 393 | moderate | 33% |
| Mon 16 Nov 18:00Z | +126h | 33.5°N 118.8°W | 266 | moderate | 33% |
| Tue 17 Nov 00:00Z | +132h | 32.5°N 117.5°W | 367 | moderate | 33% |
| Tue 17 Nov 06:00Z | +138h | 32.5°N 117.5°W | 320 | moderate | 33% |
| Wed 18 Nov 00:00Z | +156h | 48.4°N 124.9°W | 254 | moderate | 33% |
| Wed 18 Nov 06:00Z | +162h | 42.5°N 124.6°W | 304 | moderate | 33% |
| Wed 18 Nov 12:00Z | +168h | 40.2°N 124.4°W | 426 | strong | 67% |
IVT is integrated vapour transport — how much water vapour the atmosphere carries past a point. 250 kg/m/s defines an atmospheric river, 500+ is strong, 750+ is extreme.
How this was made
FourCastNet 3 (711M parameters) initialised from NOAA GDAS 0.25°, run on an Apple M4 Pro. Analysis is roughly four hours behind real time, so this forecast starts from the atmosphere as it was this morning — not from last week.
30s
per 6‑hour step
3
ensemble members
72
model variables
0.25°
resolution